Why Outlier Poll Showing Harris Winning Iowa Could Spell Trouble For Trump

Former President Donald Trump has lost his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in solidly red Iowa, according to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll conducted by revered pollster J. Ann Selzer—an outlier compared to other surveys in the state but one that should be taken as a serious warning sign for Trump given Selzer’s pristine polling record.

The Iowa Poll of 808 likely voters conducted Oct. 28-31 and released late Saturday (margin of error 3.4 points) shows Harris ahead 47%-44% in the state, after Trump led by four points in Iowa in Selzer’s September poll for the paper and by 18 points in June against President Joe Biden.

The poll found politically independent voters, women and older voters are the driving force behind Harris’ rise in the state, which could be a bellwether for the rest of the country.

Harris has overtaken Trump’s support among independents as a whole in Iowa, and now leads 46%-39%, and she leads by 28 points among independent women, a sharp swing since September’s five-point lead, though independent men still favor Trump by a much smaller 47%-37% margin.

Harris leads women over the age of 65, 63%-28%, and men in that age bracket 47%-45%, the poll found.

R&I ~ MJM