For most of the primary, “anything can happen” has been the mantra of reporters, analysts and pundits alike. But that’s not really true anymore. The top-tier candidates – Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg – all have real support in early states and a plausible path to the nomination. The bottom-tier candidates are a grab bag of low-polling long shots and billionaires who theoretically could win but are probably just burning their cash.
Only one candidate falls into neither category: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.). Klobuchar sits between the top and the bottom tier, making her the race’s real wild card. If everything goes right for her, she might be able to post a solid showing in Iowa, stay alive and make real waves in the race. But she’s not strong enough to be placed in the top tier. Whether she booms or falls short is one of the biggest questions of the night of the Iowa caucuses, and could help upend the race down the road.
According to my average of recent Iowa polls, Klobuchar has the support of 7 percent of Iowa voters. To the untrained eye, that might not sound like a lot more than someone who is stuck between 0 and 1 percent of the vote. But, statistically speaking, candidates who have some support aren’t doomed because they have what could be called a “long right tail.”
