*Political Editorial by GayJew*
The Democratic Party is running into a large issue. The Democratic Party’s many sub-groups disagree vehemently regarding who should be the nominee, and there doesn’t appear to be a consensus candidate.
Joe Biden has effectively been written off by most white people. His support comes almost exclusively from Blacks, with a tiny sliver of older whites rounding out his supporters. Joe will never be able to generate the enthusiasm among whites necessary to win the general election.
Bernie Sanders draws support largely from young voters. While Bernie’s supporters claim that he brings in moderate and independent voters, moderates and independents are frequently turned off by him. According to the New York Times, 12% of Bernie’s supporters in Iowa we’re moderates, compared to 30% for Pete. 13% of Bernie’s supporters identified as moderate /conservative, compared to Pete’s 38%.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/03/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus-polls.html
While Bernie will certainly bring out the young people and democratic-socialists, it is entirely possibly his candidacy would motivate moderates to turnout to vote… against his candidacy. Independents and moderates certainly don’t support him en masse, according to the New York Times data cited above.
Then we come to Pete Buttigieg. Pete’s performance in Iowa shows he brings out voters from rural areas, suburban areas, and, to the extent Bernie allowed, urban areas. He also does well across all age groups, taking into account Bernie clobbers him among the young. Pete’s obvious Achilles heel is his Black support. I am of the mindset that Blacks will come around to Pete as he theoretically gains momentum. If Blacks don’t, it is unlikely Pete could win in the general election without Black support. Bloomberg has identical issues to Pete with Black support, due to stop and frisk.
Some people view Warren as the consensus candidate. This is because she is perceived as being slightly less left than Bernie Sanders. However, it is quite likely that the same moderates who are turned off by Bernie are turned off by Warren as well. NYT data confirms this in Iowa. Further, Warren is currently slumping in the polls, and the notion that Bernie folks will agree to her a “consensus” candidate is about as likely as hell freezing over.
With Democratic-Socialists, Moderates and Blacks all supporting different candidates, the way forward for democrats is not clear.
In a contested convention, Bernie will likely not be the nominee on the basis of his (I) party status, in addition to the many moderates who reject him. It is doubtful any moderate would sign up to Bernie’s campaign as VP to ameliorate this issue.
On the other hand, if Pete or Bloomberg walk into the contested convention with the number 1 or number 2 spot, they could address their racial short comings by picking an African American VP.
Regardless of who democrats end up nominating, it is clear that at least one group will not get a ticket they love.
Here’s to hoping they still turn out to vote.
