Why You Don’t Want To Live In Republican-Heavy States In 2022

Self-Indulgent Intro

Well hello and welcome. If you clicked on this article, it’s probably because you are a Democrat looking for some fun material to mock Republicans, a Republican looking to call me on a mistake, or a genuinely curious person who wants to see why I’m so adamantly sure in my headline. I hope I disappoint only one of you.

Because I’ve been doing data analysis on politics a long time. It’s not a job, it’s a hobby, stemming from my practical and education backgrounds. I like data. Looking at raw data is my porn. There’s no better feeling to be had than to find a pattern in concrete information, on which a perspective, narrative or argument can be factually based. And I hope after reading this article, you can appreciate that feeling too.

Without any further ado, here we go:

The Claims

  1. Living in a Republican-Heavy state leads to lower outcomes in reaction to the Pandemic and its health impacts.
  2. Age and Obesity rates, while often cited by Republicans as an offset to why their COVID scores are so terrible, are not related to COVID outcomes.
  3. Living in a Republican-Heavy state leads to lower outcomes in all aspects of life
  4. Living in Republican-Heavy states can lead to you losing perspective as you are a significant minority of the nation.

The Sources

I use a lot of sources for data, but to make it simple I’ll restrict myself to the following:

COVID results: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Party affiliation: https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/compare/party-affiliation/by/state/

Obesity Rates: https://stateofchildhoodobesity.org/adult-obesity/

Median Age: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_median_age (Census Data)

Race Composition: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_African-American_population (Census Data)

Poverty Rate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_poverty_rate (Census Data)

Per Life Category Rankings: https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings (See their description of how these rankings are calculated and which elements are included)

The Data

First off, what are Republican-Heavy States? Well, I took the self-identification status of people in all states and ranked them by how much of a lean, Republican or Democrat, each had. Doing so I ended up with the following states as being Republican leaning:

RankStateRepublicanDemocraticDifference
1Wyoming57%25%32%
2Utah54%30%24%
3Montana49%30%19%
4Alabama52%35%17%
5Idaho49%32%17%
6North Dakota50%33%17%
7South Dakota53%37%16%
8Kansas46%31%15%
9Tennessee48%36%12%
10Nebraska47%36%11%
11Arkansas46%38%8%
12Alaska39%32%7%
13Indiana42%37%5%
14Oklahoma45%40%5%

Secondly, I needed to know the COVID stats for each State. So I ranked the top ten the same way:

RankStateInfection Rate
1North Dakota1
2Alaska2
3Tennessee3
4Wyoming4
5South Dakota5
6Utah6
7Rhode Island7
8Iowa8
9Montana9
10South Carolina10
RankStateDeath Rate
1Mississippi1
2Alabama2
3New Jersey3
4Louisiana4
5Arizona5
6New York6
7Arkansas7
8Georgia8
9Florida9
10Oklahoma10

Then I needed to know the obesity rate rankings, for claim 2:

RankStateObesity Rank
1Mississippi1
2West Virginia2
3Alabama3
4Louisiana4
5Indiana5
6Kentucky6
7Iowa7
8Delaware7
9Arkansas9
10Oklahoma9

Followed by the Key Demographics (Age, Race, Poverty Level):

RankStateMedian Age
1Maine45
2New Hampshire43.1
3Vermont43
4West Virginia42.9
5Florida42.5
6Delaware41.1
7Connecticut41.1
8Pennsylvania40.8
9Rhode Island40.1
10Montana40.1
RankStateBlack Population
1District of Columbia41.40%
2Mississippi36.60%
3Louisiana31.40%
4Georgia31.00%
5Maryland29.50%
6Alabama25.80%
7South Carolina25.00%
8Delaware22.10%
9North Carolina20.50%
10Virginia18.60%
11Tennessee15.80%
RankStatePoverty
1Mississippi19.60%
2Louisiana19.00%
3New Mexico18.20%
4Kentucky16.30%
5Arkansas16.20%
6West Virginia16.00%
7Alabama15.50%
8Oklahoma15.20%
9Tennessee13.90%
10South Carolina13.80%

And lastly I needed the rankings of each state on the bottom of each living category:

RankSTATEHEALTH CARE
1Mississippi50
2Arkansas49
3Oklahoma48
4West Virginia47
5Louisiana46
6Alabama45
7Kentucky44
8Georgia43
9Missouri42
10Kansas41
RankSTATEEDUCATION
1New Mexico50
2Alaska49
3Louisiana48
4Alabama47
5Arizona46
6West Virginia45
7South Carolina44
8Mississippi43
9Oklahoma42
10Arkansas41
RankSTATEECONOMY
1Alaska50
2Mississippi49
3West Virginia48
4Louisiana47
5Hawaii46
6Wyoming45
7New Mexico44
8New York43
9Pennsylvania42
10Arkansas41
RankSTATEINFRASTRUCTURE
1West Virginia50
2Rhode Island49
3Mississippi48
4Louisiana47
5Connecticut46
6New Mexico45
7Pennsylvania44
8Arkansas43
9Massachusetts42
10New Jersey41
RankSTATEOPPORTUNITY
1California50
2New Mexico49
3Louisiana48
4Nevada47
5New York46
6Connecticut45
7Mississippi44
8Alaska43
9Wyoming42
10Colorado41
RankSTATEFISCAL STABILITY
1Illinois50
2New Jersey49
3Kentucky48
4Pennsylvania47
5Hawaii46
6Colorado45
7Rhode Island44
8Massachusetts43
9Louisiana42
10Mississippi41
RankSTATECRIME & CORRECTIONS
1Louisiana50
2Alaska49
3Arkansas48
4New Mexico47
5South Carolina46
6Missouri45
7Oklahoma44
8Alabama43
9Tennessee42
10Colorado41
RankSTATENATURAL ENVIRONMENT
1Nevada50
2Louisiana49
3Indiana48
4Utah47
5Alaska46
6Delaware45
7Ohio44
8Illinois43
9Oregon42
10Arizona41

The Comparisons

COVID Impact:

Looking across the data, we’re trying to find trends in the infection and death rates of states. First we will run the comparison for Infection Rate, then for Death Rate.

RankStateInfection RateR/L LeanObesity RankMedian AgeAge RankBlack PopulationPoverty
1North Dakota117%2235.3473.90%10.60%
2Alaska27%2635483.00%10.10%
3Tennessee312%13392415.80%13.90%
4Wyoming432%3338.4300.90%10.10%
5South Dakota516%2137.4392.00%11.90%
6Utah624%4031.3511.20%8.90%
7Rhode Island7-18%3640.195.70%10.80%
8Iowa81%738.5284.10%11.20%
9Montana919%4140.1100.50%12.60%
10South Carolina104%1139.91225.00%13.80%

What we can tell right away is that there is only one Democratic State in the top ten infection rate category, with 5 Deep Red States, and the rest leaning Red.
The average Obesity rate rank is 25, showing no impact whatsoever.
The Median Age Rank average is 29.8, which means there is a small relationship that states with a younger population scoring higher in the infection rate.
Black population rank average is 35.1, which means there is a very strong relationship with more non-black states having higher infection rates.
Poverty rate rank average is 29.1, showing a small relationship that states with less poverty have a higher infection rate.

All of the above holds true as well for the bottom 10, with:

RankStateInfection RateR / L LeanObesity RankMedian AgeAge RankBlack PopulationBlack Population RankPovertyPoverty Rank
1Hawaii51-23%4839.6171.60%459.30%46
2Vermont50-28%464331.40%4710.20%37
3Maine49-11%294511.90%4410.90%33
4Oregon48-15%4339.6162.00%4311.40%29
5District of Columbia47-62%5034.25041.40%113.50%14
6Maryland46-24%2939.12329.50%59.00%49
7Washington45-11%4437.8374.00%379.80%43
8Virginia444%2538.62718.60%109.90%42
9Connecticut43-18%3841.1710.80%2210.00%40
10New Hampshire42-9%3743.121.50%467.30%51

All but one State lean Democratic, with 6 Deep Blue States.
The average Obesity rate rank is 25, showing no impact whatsoever.
The Median Age Rank average is 18.3, which means there is a strong relationship that states with a Older population are scoring lower in the infection rate.
Black population rank average is 30, which means there is a relationship with more non-black states having lower infection rates.
Poverty rate rank average is 29.1, showing there is a slight relationship that states with less poverty have a lower infection rate. *

And then there is the Death Rate:

RankStateDeath Rate R / L LeanObesity RankMedian AgeAge RankBlack PopulationBlack Population RankPovertyPoverty Rank
1Mississippi12%1383536.60%219.60%1
2Alabama217%339.41925.80%615.50%7
3New Jersey3-21%4540.11113.10%179.20%47
4Louisiana4-2%437.53831.40%319.00%2
5Arizona51%3138.2344.70%3413.50%13
6New York6-25%4639.22014.80%1413.00%18
7Arkansas78%938.52915.10%1216.20%5
8Georgia80%1737.14131.00%413.30%15
9Florida9-7%4242.5515.10%1312.70%20
10Oklahoma105%936.9457.30%2615.20%8

Here we can see more variety, with 5 states leaning right but only one Deep Red state, and 4 states leaning left, but with two Deep Blue states. Georgia makes up true middle, so there is no relationship to be found here.
Obesity average is 20.7, which means there is a slight relationship between there being more obesity and higher covid death rate
Median age average is 27.2, which means there is no relationship between age and higher covid death rate.
The black population average is 13.1, which indicates a strong relationship between a higher black population and a higher covid death rate
Poverty average is 13.6, which indicates a strong relationship between higher poverty levels and a higher covid death rate

Compare that to the bottom 10:

RankStateDeath Rate R / L LeanObesity RankMedian AgeAge RankBlack PopulationBlack Population RankPovertyPoverty Rank
1Vermont51-28%464331.40%4710.20%37
2Hawaii50-23%4839.6171.60%459.30%46
3Maine49-11%294511.90%4410.90%33
4Utah4824%4031.3511.20%488.90%50
5Alaska477%2635483.00%4010.10%38
6Oregon46-15%4339.6162.00%4311.40%29
7Washington45-11%4437.8374.00%379.80%43
8New Hampshire44-9%3743.121.50%467.30%51
9Nebraska4311%1836.8464.90%339.90%41
10Colorado42-1%5137.1424.10%369.30%45

Here we see 7 blue states, 3 of them Deep Blue, and three red states, 1 of them Deep Red. There is a slight relationship between more Democratic people and lower COVID death rate.
Obesity ranks in at 38.2, showing a strong relationship between lower obesity and lower COVID death rate.
Age comes in at 26.3, showing no relationship to lower covid death rate
Black population comes in at 41.9, again showing a strong relationship between a higher non-black population and lower COVID death rate.
Poverty come in at 41.3, also showing a strong relationship between a lower poverty and lower COVID death rate.

Political Leaning versus State of Living

For the last comparison, we need to look at the state rankings and compare to political leanings:

First off we do Republican States:

RankStateR / L LeanHEALTH CAREEDUCATIONECONOMYINFRASTRUCTUREOPPORTUNITYFISCAL STABILITYCRIME & CORRECTIONSNATURAL ENVIRONMENT
1Wyoming32%382145842342113
2Utah24%111015305847
3Montana19%3632191335193424
4Alabama17%4547382837224337
5Idaho17%24293102441012
6North Dakota17%27253242316188
7South Dakota16%29193014272353
8Kansas15%412331716392716
9Tennessee12%403316172134239
10Nebraska11%2892061017316
11Arkansas8%4941414322144830
12Alaska7%224950404314946
13Indiana5%322221327322448
14Oklahoma5%4842372126254434

Healthcare scores are at a 33.57 Average, meaning that there is a strong relationship with Republican states having lower ranks in Healthcare
Education average is 28.74, meaning there is a slight relationship with Republican states having lower ranks in Education.
Economy ranks in at 27.4, showing a very slight relationship with Republican states having a lower rank in Economy.
Infrastructure has an average of 17.71, showing a strong relationship with Republican states having a higher rank in Infrastructure.
Opportunity averages in at 25.9, showing no relationship between Republican states and Opportunity.
Fiscal Stability comes in at 16.6, showing a strong relationship between Republican states having a higher rank in Fiscal Stability.
Crime and Corrections comes in at 31, showing a relationship between Republican states having a lower rank in Crime and Corrections.
Natural Environment comes in at 25.9, showing no relationship between Republican states and Natural Environment.

Now it’s time for Democratic States:

RankState R / L LeanHEALTH CAREEDUCATIONECONOMYINFRASTRUCTUREOPPORTUNITYFISCAL STABILITYCRIME & CORRECTIONSNATURAL ENVIRONMENT
1Massachusetts-29%22542364344
2Vermont-28%18152512173739
3Delaware-26%1424242514123945
4New York-25%71643304620115
5Maryland-24%614353815292211
6Hawaii-23%12746333446121
7New Jersey-21%4133411949533
8California-19%520103150362835
9Connecticut-18%3622464530628
10Rhode Island-18%9392849324477
11Oregon-15%173514231134042
12Illinois-15%2311392612501643
13Michigan-13%353829355383032
14Washington-11%84432561915
15Maine-11%262836372926214
16New Mexico-11%3350444549354731
17New Hampshire-9%1313113433312
18Nevada-9%39406147273650
19Minnesota-7%16171592211510
20Pennsylvania-7%1937424411471738
21Florida-7%2538203382618

Healthcare scores are at a 15.4 Average, meaning that there is a very strong relationship with Democratic states having higher ranks in Healthcare
Education average is 20.9, meaning there is a relationship with Democratic states having higher ranks in Education.
Economy ranks in at 24.7, showing no relationship between Democratic states and Economy.
Infrastructure has an average of 28.7, showing a slight relationship with Democratic states having a lower rank in Infrastructure.
Opportunity averages in at 26.4, showing no relationship between Democratic states and Opportunity.
Fiscal Stability comes in at 30.9, showing a relationship between Democratic states having a lower rank in Fiscal Stability.
Crime and Corrections comes in at 18.4, showing a strong relationship between Democratic states having a higher rank in Crime and Corrections.
Natural Environment comes in at 22.5, showing a slight relationship with Democratic states having a higher rank in Natural Environment.

It is interesting to note the Top Tens of each category:

Healthcare: All Democratic or left leaning (8 Deep, 1 Lean and 1 Purple)
Education: Mostly Democratic or left leaning (3 Deep Blue, 2 Lean Blue, 3 Purple, 1 Lean Red, 1 Deep Red)
Economy: Mostly Democratic or left leaning (2 Deep Blue, 3 Lean Blue, 3 Purple, 2 Deep Red)
Infrastructure: Mostly Republican or right leaning (5 Deep Red, 1 Lean Red, 3 Lean Blue, 1 Deep Blue)
Opportunity: Mostly Purple (3 Deep Purple, 2 Lean Purple, 2 Lean Red, 3 Lean Blue)
Fiscal Stability: Mostly Republican or right leaning (3 Deep Red, 2 Lean Red, 3 Purple, 2 Lean Blue)
Crime and Corrections: Mostly Democratic or left leaning (5 Deep Blue, 2 Lean Blue, 1 Purple, 2 Deep Red)
Natural Environment: Mostly Democratic or left leaning (5 Deep Blue, 2 Lean Blue, 1 Lean Red, 2 Deep Red)

And the Bottom Tens in each Category:

Healthcare: All Purple or Republican (2 Deep Red, 2 Lean Red, 6 Purple)
Education: Mostly Purple or Republican leaning (5 Purple, 1 Lean Blue, 3 Lean Red)
Economy: Neutral with a Democratic leaning (2 Deep Blue, 2 Lean Blue, 3 Purple, 2 Lean Red, 1 Deep Red)
Infrastructure: Mostly Democratic or left leaning (4 Deep Blue, 2 Lean Blue, 3 Purple, 1 Lean Red)
Opportunity: Mostly Democratic or left leaning (3 Deep Blue, 2 Lean Blue, 3 Purple, 1 Lean Red, 1 Deep Red)
Fiscal Stability: All Purple or Democratic (5 Deep Blue, 1 Lean Blue, 4 Purple)
Crime and Corrections: Mostly Republican or right leaning (1 Deep Red, 4 Lean Red, 4 Purple, 1 Lean Blue)
Natural Environment: Somewhat Democratic or left leaning (3 Deep Blue, 1 Lean Blue, 3 Purple, 2 Lean Red, 1 Deep Red)

The Analysis

Based on the data above, we can come up with a few analysis points:

Higher COVID Infections:

  • There is a strong relationship between being in a Republican-Heavy State and higher COVID infection rates.
    • Aside from Rhode Island, Republican states dominate the top infection rates.
  • There is no impact from Obesity on infection rate
  • There is a slight impact from having less poverty and having a younger population on higher infection rates.
  • There is a significant impact on having less black population and having a higher infection rate.

Lower COVID Infections:

  • There is a strong relationship between being in a Republican-Low State and having a lower COVID infection rate.
    • Only Purple Virginia breaks this trend
  • There is no relationship from obesity on lower COVID Infection rates
  • There is a slight impact from having less poverty on a lower infection rate (yes, this means that the slight impact on both low and high are probably nothing, and cancel one another out)
  • There is a relationship between having less black population and having a lower infection rate (yes, this also means that there is a contradiction, and while there is a significant difference in impact less black populations having more COVID infections, the highest black population areas fall into the middle infection rates. Consider this then a slight relationship between less black people = more infection rate).
  • There is a significant impact in that older-population states have less infections

Higher COVID Death Rate:

  • There is no pattern to higher death rates by political leaning, as both deep red, deep blue and deep purple states rank in the top.
    • Red States rank a bit higher, but Blue states are a bit Bluer. This also has to do with New York and New Jersey being general outliers of most trends.
  • There is no relationship between higher age and a higher COVID Death rate.
  • There is a slight relationship between higher obesity and higher covid death rates
  • There are strong relationships between poverty or having a higher black population and COVID death rates.

Lower COVID Death Rate:

  • There is a slight relationship between more Democratic people and lower COVID death rate.
    • Utah is an exception, one we will talk about more later
  • There is no relationship between higher age and lower COVID death rates.
  • There are strong relationships between states that have lower poverty, lower obesity, and lower black populations and lower COVID death rates.

Life Aspect Scores:

  • Healthcare: There are strong relationships here between political leaning and healthcare; Republican states score low and Democratic states score high, consistently.
  • Education: There is a slight relationship for education, with Democratic states scoring higher on average.
  • Economy: There is a very slight relationship for Economy, again favoring Democratic states.
  • Infrastructure: Republican states do significantly better in Infrastructure scores (quality of states’ bridges, public transportation, power grids, broadband) but Democratic states do not do worse than average.
  • Opportunity: There is no relationship between political leaning and Opportunity (housing affordability and equality for women, minorities and people with disabilities), but there is a right lean to higher poverty rates nationwide.
  • Fiscal Stability: Republican states are significantly more stable, fiscally, while there is a lower fiscal stability associated with Democratic states (government credit ratings, liquidity, pension fund liability and budget balancing)
  • Crime and Corrections: Democratic states are significantly better in Crimes and Corrections, with Republican states scoring significantly lower as well.
  • Natural Environment: There’s mostly no relationship here, aside from a slight advantage for Democratic States.

Exceptions:

  • Freaking Utah. Very high Republican score, very high infection rate, but very low death rate, very high age, very low obesity, black population, and poverty. High scores in Economy, Infrastructure, Fiscal Stability and Crime, with good scores in Healthcare and Education.
  • New York and New Jersey. Very high Democratic scores, high healthcare rating and low infection rate, low obesity rate, but higher death rates than most.

Population:

  • One additional point for claim four is to look at population versus political affiliation.
    • Republican States count at 14, with a total population of 39,305,901.
      • 8 are Deep Red (15% of more difference between Republican and Democratic populations) (population: 16,103,780)
      • 6 lean right (population: 23,202,121)
    • Purple States count at 15, with a total population of 117,511,869
      • 5 lean slightly right (population: 30,141,629)
      • 2 lean slightly left (population: 15,136,878)
      • 8 are Deep Purple (population: 72,233,362)
    • Democratic states count at 21, with a total population of 170,716,004
      • 12 are Deep Blue (population: 106,019,737)
      • 9 lean left (population: 65,402,016)
  • This means that Republican-dominated states only make up 4.91% of the USA, while Democratic-dominated states make up 32.3% of the USA.
    • Even lumping all right leaning areas and all left leaning areas together, you still get 21.16% Republican versus 56.84% Democratic, and 22.01% Purple.
    • Even if you include every single Purple state, even the left leaning ones, into the Republican side, you still have 47.78% Republican versus 52.22% Democratic

The Conclusion:

Going down the list of claims:

  1. Living in a Republican-Heavy state leads to lower outcomes in reaction to the Pandemic and its health impacts.
    1. Half-True
    2. You are far likelier to get infected and suffer those problems, but there is no significant impact on the COVID death rate.
      .
  2. Age and Obesity rates, while often cited by Republicans as an offset to why their COVID scores are so terrible, are not related to COVID outcomes.
    1. Mostly True
    2. Age has no impact on either infection or death rates, and shows only indicators for YOUNGER populations being more at risk.
    3. Obesity rates don’t significantly impact a higher death rate, but they do impact a lower one, meaning it’s still better to not be obese.
      .
  3. Living in a Republican-Heavy state leads to lower outcomes in all aspects of life
    1. Mostly True but with 2 significant exceptions
    2. While Republican heavy states score exceptionally low in many aspects of living, including Education, Healthcare, General Economy and Crime, they dominate Fiscal Stability and generally have good Infrastructure.
    3. Utah is also a great exception to the rule, ranking high in most aspects.
    4. Washington State dominates most other states in the rankings, as well as being a good haven against COVID infections and death rates.
      .
  4. Living in Republican-Heavy states can lead to you losing perspective as you are a significant minority of the nation.
    1. Subjective, but strong indicators, with a caveat for Democrats.
    2. Sharing the mindset of only 5% of the nation, but being surrounded by it, can easily convince one that their way of thinking is the dominant one nationwide.
    3. On the other hand, sharing the mindset of a third of the nation while surrounded by people of similar mindsets can also give a feeling of there only being one way of thinking
    4. With 35% of the nation living in the middle, it is easy to lose sight of the other sides, especially if your side makes up over half of the national population.

Basically, you don’t want to live in a Republican Heavy State because while your state may stay viable, you will most likely not, as you will have issues with medical safety, healthcare in general, a lack of education, a poor environment, a middling economy and more crime, all while the people around you think they represent the majority while being a very small minority of the nation. That’s not a deal I would take, and I don;t think many others given the choice would choose that, free from tribal identity politics.

Ok, so this is where I leave you. Please peruse the numbers and chat below if you have some insights or arguments to counter my points.