Voters do not buy the Left’s and media’s lies about Trump anymore.
The RealClearPolitics polling averages, the gold standard to understand the nation’s current mood, have the Democrats truly worried.
Nationwide, former President Trump has a +1.7% lead over President Biden. In Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada, Trump leads Biden by over five points, significantly greater than Biden’s 2020 victory margins of 0.4%, 0.3%, 3.2%, and 3.4%, respectively. Trump is leading in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, although by not such commanding leads.
If Trump’s leads hold, he will indeed be reelected in November. We can confidently say so because 2024 is a rematch, the first of its kind in over a century. Even if third-party candidates enter, they will likely be more noise than signal.
The 2020 election was extremely close. Liberal NPR analyzed the results and showed what a nail-biter match it was: “Just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College.” We calculate the 44,000 votes to be about a margin of 0.6% in each of these states.
So, what is powering Trump’s performance?
Of course, Biden’s failure as president, indicated by his 55.5% disapproval rating and the country’s 65% wrong-track number, are factors. Public memory is short, and Americans tend to view their presidents more fondly in hindsight. Voters tell reporters they are nostalgic for Trump’s years (low inflation, no new wars, a controlled border, a strong economy, and low unemployment).
But there is something more to it. Voters do not buy the Left’s and media’s lies about Trump anymore. On Saturday, campaigning in Michigan, Trump said that there would be a “bloodbath” if he loses the election. CBS News, Rolling Stone, and NBC News all carried headlines about the bloodbath comment. The Biden team criticized the former president’s “threats of political violence.” The problem? Trump was talking about auto manufacturing.
Americans see that the Left has tried every trick in the book – from ‘Russia, Russia, Russia’ to the latest Fani Willis RICO case – to bring Trump down. In each instance, the Left lied about what Trump supposedly did, sometimes using laws and lawfare to frame him.
Elections are nearly always a referendum on the incumbent. In a rematch, such a referendum becomes much easier. All voters have to answer is a simple question that Ronald Reagan posed 40 years ago: “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”