Approved ~ Løki
The impacts of climate change are here with soaring temperatures, stronger hurricanes, intensified floods and a longer and more severe wildfire season. Scientists warn that ignoring climate change will yield “untold suffering” for humanity. But if things are going to get that much worse, could climate change make humans go extinct?
Scientists predict a range of devastating scenarios if climate change is not kept under control, but if we just consider the direct impacts, then there’s some good news; it’s unlikely to cause our extinction.
Too hot to handle?
A runaway greenhouse effect is probably the only way climate change impacts could directly cause human extinction, according to Luke Kemp, a research associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom. …
Fortunately, the runaway greenhouse effect is not a plausible climate change scenario on Earth. For the effect to occur, a planet needs carbon dioxide levels of a couple of thousand parts per million (Earth has a little over 400 parts per million) or a huge release of methane, and there isn’t evidence for that at this time, Brian Kahn, a research scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told NASA in 2018.
Past extinctions and collapses
Kemp studies previous civilization collapses and the risk of climate change. Extinctions and catastrophes almost always involve multiple factors, he said, but he thinks if humans were to go extinct, climate change would likely be the main culprit.
“If I’m to say, what do I think is the biggest contributor to the potential for human extinction going towards the future? Then climate change, no doubt,” Kemp told Live Science.
Turning on ourselves
The last scenario to consider is climate-driven conflict. Kemp explained that in the future, a scarcity of resources that diminish because of climate change could potentially create conditions for wars that threaten humanity. “There’s reasons to be concerned that as water resources dry up and scarcity becomes worse, and the general conditions of living today become much, much worse, then suddenly, the threat of potential nuclear war becomes much higher,” Kemp said.
Put another way, climate change impacts might not directly cause humans to go extinct, but it could lead to events that seriously endanger hundreds of millions, if not billions, of lives.
What’s next?
Experts say it isn’t too late to avoid the worst-case scenarios with significant cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.
“It is up to us,” Mann said. “If we fail to reduce carbon emissions substantially in the decade ahead, we are likely committed to a worsening of already dangerous extreme weather events, inundation of coastlines around the world due to melting ice and rising sea level, more pressure on limited resources as a growing global population competes for less food, water and space due to climate change impacts. If we act boldly now, we can avoid the worst impacts.”