When 2023 began, just about everybody who had an opinion was predicting the U.S. would be in a recession by year’s end. It hasn’t happened. Not only that, but the U.S. economy is growing (as measured by gross domestic product
And it’s not like we are just riding the wave of a global economic boom. America’s growth is much stronger than that of other wealthy countries—most of whom are barely growing at all. In fact, perennial powerhouse Germany’s economy actually shrank last year, even as it and the majority of G7 countries had an equal or higher rate of inflation than ours.
"The United States economy grew faster than any other large advanced economy last year — by a wide margin — and is on track to do so again in 2024."
— Steven Rattner (@SteveRattner) January 31, 2024
CC: @axios pic.twitter.com/9hcixFYtz3
Economists expected a recession because the Federal Reserve had hiked interest rates to fight the post-COVID inflation we’d been experiencing. Interest rates went up 5 full percentage points in 15 months. Rising interest rates, because they make borrowing more expensive, often lead to a recession, as companies and consumers cut back on spending. This time, however, the Biden economy appears to have avoided that scenario. Instead, we’re experiencing what Paul Krugman called “a better-than-Goldilocks soft landing.”